A war of economics: China’s geopolitical position in the world

China is undoubtedly becoming one of the most important and influential players in the international political economy, it has the potential to re-shape the global order and write the future going forward. But how did they get here? And what are they are doing about it now?

Their economical ties have made them invulnerable

Students of history will remember that a key part of maintaining peace in Europe after the second world war was tying countries together economically, thus giving them of less of reason to engage in full-scale conflict. This is seen in historic rivals Germany (West Germany during the Cold War) and France, who to this day, haven’t engaged in conflict since the end of the second world war. Strange for two countries who went to war seven times in a 170 year period. This is because they became economically dependent on one another and have since fostered good relations to avoid major conflict. A war between the two would now be disastrous, with Germany being France’s biggest trading partner (accounting for 14% of all total exports in 2020) and France being Germany’s third biggest trading partner, coming only after the world’s two biggest economies - America and China.

This is a liberalist peace-building strategy and would continue to define conflict resolutions headed by Western powers for generations to come, even today suggestions from The Hague and professionals surrounding the organisation are suggesting regional economic integration to combat conflict in Afghanistan. However, this strategy seems to have backfired in the modern day. This history lesson may seem unimportant, but in fact it is vital into understanding how China is treated in the new global economy. In 2001 the Clinton administration’s plans to welcome China into the World Trade Organisation were realised, and China committed to a certain set of regulations in keeping with modern economic philosophy - privatisation of certain economic sectors, a reduction in tariffs on imports and the encouragement of foreign investment and competition in their domestic economy. In 2000 Bill Clinton stated “By joining the WTO, China is not simply agreeing to import more of our products, it is agreeing to import one of democracy’s most cherished values, economic freedom”, this is the strategy we saw above, by integrating China into the global economy, the West could make them a friend, a rule abiding player in the global economy. Slightly different in that instead of tying two countries together, this would tie China into the whole global network.

By doing this The United States clearly believed they could make the former communist nation and major player in the Cold War play by their rules and neutralise as them as a threat to America’s vision for the world going forward. In this world, China would join in the shared liberal values and economic ties that kept war out of many European nations. However, this did not happen. The Chinese government plays by its own rules - committing acts of genocide on Uyghur populations, persecuting freethinking journalists at will, violently opposing peaceful protestors calling for democracy in Hong Kong and aggressively seeking territorial expansion at nearly every border. Though now, they do it with it the might of the global economy behind them. China can’t and aren’t being directly opposed for the clear violations of human rights abuses because of their economic acumen. They are the world’s largest exporter, accounting for 18% of global GDP, any form of conflict with China is not an option and the West brought this upon themselves, exporting an archaic philosophy onto a nation that had been left behind by the Western system for centuries.

China is making friends in strategic places

The Chinese government has been very cleverly cementing their position in future of the global economy by empowering developing nations, potentially swaying them to support both the Chinese economy and Chinese interests on the international stage. Africa is a growing hub of immense economic potential, with the region currently having one of the highest population growth rates among the world’s continents. This offers large capabilities for innovation and GDP growth that China hopes to capitalise on through securing lucrative trade deals with the region. To do so, China has been heavily involved in the region, building deep water ports and bridges, is the continent’s biggest trading partner and its largest bilateral creditor, slowly catching up to the Western powers in terms of foreign investment. Sure, this is a win for the nations of Africa, the continent stands in a great position to make the most of the opportunities the economic powerhouse provides, but this clever relationship also stands to benefit a despotic regime hellbent on violating every human right in the book, not to mention that China would push African states to back Beijing on issues they deem as ‘sensitive’. Africa has been left behind in the development story and its leaders cannot be blamed for embracing such a position, but the West needs to offer a more coherent and coordinated strategy to lure African nations away from that position, if they hope to curb Chinese influence.

Another place China hopes to win hearts through economic influence is central Asia. The nations of central Asia are another region left out by the development narrative, the region has struggled to find its feet economically since the historic trade route, ‘The Silk Road’, began to fade as the world’s preliminary supplier of goods. However, it seems as though China hopes to revive this ancient trade route, Central Asia being of critical importance. If supported, Central Asia could connect the East to the West offering a whole new vast economic region offering many opportunities for countries that hope to do trade with the area. At current central Asia can’t compete with the giants that surround it, the EU to its West and China to its East, it requires development in infrastructure and many other sectors to surpass its reliance on agriculture and mining.

The Belt and Road Initiative (The Cipher Brief)

However, China hopes to make it into a powerhouse, placing central Asia back on the map in terms of international trade. It will do this through the Belt and Road Initiative. A development initiative that dwarfs the Marshall Plan in size, costing an estimated 4-8 trillion dollars on completion. The initiative aims to increase to the connectivity from China to central Asia to Europe, utilising high speed railways, economic zones, trade deals, energy pipelines and more efficient border crossings. One only needs to look at the development of former small town Khorgas on the Kazakh-Chinese border into major dry port to see this in action. This initiative would even further integrate the Asian giant into the world economy by befriending and supporting the strategic epicentre of the eurasian continent - central Asia, situating China in a position to reduce its reliance on the American market and intensify its power over many smaller nations in the global community.

In Conclusion

I hope this article has provided an insight into where China is currently situated in the global economy. The next years will be telling in whether the global order will be re-shaped by Chinese economics with a new focus on the East, or whether the Western powers such as the EU and the USA can come up with a strategy to compete with China and tackle the human rights abuses the Chinese population are suffering at the hands of the CCP. It also important to note that although this article is centred on China and its current influence as a geopolitical power, there are few innocent parties in hierarchies of the global economy.