In 1969, the resignation of the then-Northern Irish UUP Prime Minister Terence O’Neill would be described by Ian Paisley as the ‘dying kicks of O’Neillism’.
Today, the opposite seems to be happening with Loyalism on the backfoot as the tide of history starts to sweep them away in favour of Nationalist, moderate, and non-aligned politics. Perhaps, we’re even seeing the dying kicks of Unionism and Loyalism.
Since the 2022 Assembly elections, Sinn Féin has been the largest party in the Assembly as Unionists continue to split the vote amongst themselves. While Catholics are growing to be the largest plurality bloc in Northern Ireland since the 2021 census, it would be wrong to say that demographic change alone will seal Unionism’s fate, not all Catholics are Nationalists. The end lies through the changing hearts and minds of moderates and the non-aligned.
Sinn Féin and Nationalists as a whole have done a generally better job at appealing to moderates in offering ways to connect with one another while Loyalists are unwilling. This can be demonstrated with their approach to the issue of the Irish language. An example of this are threats against Irish language classes by Loyalist groups, opposed to the Irish language, in places such as Castlerock in Derry, as reported by the BBC in early October. Meanwhile, Nationalists have generally succeeded in sharing cultural items generally considered to be theirs, or as the Irish Independent put it, Unionists ‘are learning that Irish is very much their language’.
If this points to anything, Nationalists look for converts while Unionists, ever dividing, look for Lundys, and the non-aligned pick up the disaffected moderates.
In the quest for a form of ideological purity, Unionists have divided themselves, while Nationalists have mostly coalesced around Sinn Féin. There are 35 Nationalist MLAs at the time of writing, 27 are Sinn Féin and 8 are SDLP. Meanwhile, there are 36 Unionist MLAs split four ways.
We must ask, why is this the case?
Well, the best answer is probably to do with the purpose of these parties and the stories they tell themselves.
Nationalists and Republicans have one overarching goal, to unite with the 26 counties, the name ‘Sinn Féin’ literally means ‘we ourselves’. While no Unionist parties were in attendance, the Ireland’s Future foundation has invited individuals from Unionist backgrounds to discuss issues which they care about [BBC]. They have even been allowed to put forth reservations concerning unification, pointing to some degree of openness towards others being exhibited by Nationalist politicians and groups.
Unionists have the aim of remaining part of the U.K., no grand narrative guiding them with a specific purpose to a goal beyond what they already have. This has led to a divide between moderates such as the UUP; the dominant Unionist force, the DUP; and more hardline Loyalist elements such as the TUV as they seek to guard their understanding of the status quo. The TUV is probably the greatest example of the desire to hunt down perceived traitors with the spokesman for North Down calling the deputy leader of the non-aligned Alliance party a ‘crypto-nationalist’ for his support of the Irish language act. This again shows how Nationalists succeed in not alienating potential partners enough to bring them around to supporting their policies, or at the very least be willing to engage with them, while Loyalists go on the attack.
This is not to say that Unionists and Loyalists are being in anyway irrational, after all they are merely guarding their interests and against what they fear as a loss of their identity, their sense of who they are, and for some politicians, their political raison d’être. However, they are not doing their movement any favours by disengaging with others.
Whether it is too late for Loyalists and Unionist to save themselves from political extinction is difficult to say, although I am generally suspicious of attempts to predict the future. Their current modus operandi has not given them much goodwill from other political blocs and I cannot see that changing anytime soon.