Trump
At the time of writing, Trump has been in office 3 days. Given the contents of the Executive Orders signed by Trump on Day 1 of his Presidency, one can see that the US is carving out a new trajectory. With the US abandoning the World Health Organisation and the Paris Climate Agreement it is hard not to believe that the neoliberal, internationalist order that has been prevalent since the 90s is not at an end – for better or for worse.
Trump’s foreign policy is ruthless and protectionist, a far cry from the idealistic liberal interventionism of latter decades. One can see this in his pushing for the annexation of Greenland, a policy that has little to justify it apart from American self-interest. Similarly, his re-election has shaken the government of Canada to its core by provoking the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The Panama Canal
Trump also has plans regarding Latin America. His mass deportation policy, which has already been put into action, has received hostile responses in Central and South America, with Honduran President Xiomara Castro threatening to expel a US military base from the country. Trump seems to have an ally in the form of Argentina’s ‘anarcho-capitalist’ President, Javier Milei, but this friendship may only go so far. Milei’s ‘chainsaw government’ contrasts sharply to the new American imperium envisaged by Trump, which, as we can already see, revolves around massive displays of statist power. The full consequences of such radical actions have yet to be seen. But one particular policy of Trump’s is new and is already causing dramatic geopolitical shifts: that of retaking the Panama Canal.
On Christmas Day Trump claimed that the Panama Canal was being ‘lovingly, but illegally’ controlled by Chinese troops. He went on to accuse the Panamanians of exacting higher tariffs from American shipping than that of other nation, with Panama denying both claims. Already the Panamanian government has made a formal complaint to the United Nations, citing the article of the UN Charter that prohibits any member from using ‘the threat or use of force’ against another.
Originally a project of the French, the Canal was built between 1904 and 1914 under American supervision, before being granted to Panama in 1977 during the Presidency of Jimmy Carter. Trump has referred to handing over of the Canal as a ‘very big mistake’. Like the Suez, the Panama Canal is vital to global trade. It represents a shortcut between Atlantic and Pacific, without which shipping would have to take the far longer and more costly route around Patagonia and the tip of South America. Whilst there is no evidence of a Chinese military presence in the Canal, it is certainly true that Beijing has been heavily investing in the area for several years, and is the Canal’s second largest user, a distant second after the US.
The fact of whether the Chinese have troops in Panama is irrelevant, at least for the White House. What Trump really wants is to check Chinese influence in the Americas. We now have entered a multipolar era, in which conflict will become increasingly commonplace. By threatening Canada, Mexico, Panama and Greenland Trump is asserting the US position in the Americas, and pre-emptively striking at American rivals.
In many ways, the White House is right to be concerned. The BRICS coalition spearheaded by Russia and China has long been making inroads into the region, with leaders from Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba and Brazil meeting at their 2024 conference. These nations posit themselves as an alternative to the US-led global order. One can question whether such an order still exists, but either way these nations will not stand to see Panama and other nations fall under American hegemony.
In attempting to push for US domination in Latin America Trump may either push neutral nations into the Russian and Chinese spheres of influence or succeed in promoting an American sphere of influence. If American troops were to be deployed to Panama, there would be little mention of democracy, as with the US interventions of the 20th century. This would be an aggressive war, pursued solely for American interests and American exceptionalism.
A New Era
It is clear that with Trump’s re-election we are well and truly in a new geopolitical era. The façade of peace and global prosperity maintained since the end of the Cold War is at an end. The nations of the world are mustering under various banners and are increasingly less afraid to pursue their own self-interest. As we see with Panama, Greenland and Canada – as well as Ukraine – smaller nations are becoming battlegrounds in which the fate of empires will be decided.
Will we in the UK be able to maintain what is left of our international standing, or merely be a plaything for more powerful nations? Do we attempt to carve out our own path forward, or support the US in their empire-building enterprise?