‘We the UAE 2031’ - Is the UAE becoming a global powerhouse?

Introduction:

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a state which has been “willed into existence against all odds by a visionary and truly humane leader”. That leader is Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan. Since the formation of the UAE on December 2nd, 1971, the small country which was once poor and undeveloped, the economy being kept afloat by fishing and pearl-diving has become the second largest economy among the Arab states. Over the past five decades the seven emirates have grown to become a key player in the global and regional arenas of politics.

The UAE has come up through the ranks as a small state in the gulf heavily reliant on the refinery of oil of which it produces an average of 3.2 million barrels of petroleum a day, although this came to haunt them in the financial market crash of 2008/09. Flight of capital and people, a crash in prices of properties and highly volatile oil prices meant that it hit home hard, especially in Dubai which had invested vast amounts of cash into infrastructure and other development projects in a short space of time. The crash had exposed the vulnerability of becoming economically reliant on a single resource. If this continued, the country’s future was on a knife edge, hence the UAE had to develop a plan.

This plan was ‘We the UAE 2031’. This vision represents the country’s plan to “enhance as a global partner and an attractive and influential economic hub”. While this vision is broad and highly diverse, it has four key aspects: “A forward society, a forward economy, a forward diplomacy and a forward ecosystem”.

Forward Society:

Each of these can be broken down further starting with a “forward society.” In the words of the UAE, it wants to be a nation, proud of its identity and one that supports the prosperity of its citizens. In other words, while being a nation where expatriates made up 88% of the population in 2019, it still prides itself on having a well-preserved national identity and culture on which its next generation of Emirati citizens can thrive. This was shown by

the setting up of the Ministry of Youth Affairs in 2019, this aimed to enhance the lives of the next generation, both with innovative education and a state-of-the-art healthcare system which is designed to be future-ready in a country where the elderly population is only 2%, well ahead of western countries. This process of prioritising the next generation of Emiratis can be placed under the broader heading of ‘Emiratisation’ which hopes to relieve the countries reliance on foreign experts working inside the country while allowing Emirati talent to drive economic productivity.

To observe a forward society, the UAE is also undertaking huge national development projects which has included the construction of the Palm Jumeirah which opened in 2007, more recently adding a monorail for more efficient travel, this extended the coastline of the UAE by 78km and is a piece of architectural ingenuity. Another example in Dubai is their

driverless metro system which is the longest in the world and is expected to have brought in $49 billion in revenue by 2030, far surpassing the costs of construction. More recent examples have ventured to Abu Dhabi with the development of Yas Island and opening of Zayed International Airport. This has been completed to further enhance their tourism sector up to 15% of GDP, this is one of many economic targets the country is prioritising along with a diversification of exports and increased foreign trade.

A forward society is also one which is inclusive and empowering where individuals can contribute effectively to the nation’s prosperity by being physically and mentally healthy and a diverse society where everyone feels at home. This links with the idea of state-of-the-art healthcare and education. The UAE hopes to have the best first 5 years of education in the world which is personalised for everyone. The same goes for healthcare which is “future-ready” and is set to become a global destination for specialised care. This has already been proven by the country’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic with Abu Dhabi being named the most pandemic resistant city in the world which shows excellent crisis management and a highly skilled workforce. However, the vision of a “home for everyone” could be challenged by the view that the UAE criminalises homosexuality, a view which many disagree with in the western world and something which could prevent the UAE from being a global leader.

Forward economy:

The UAE wants to become the most dynamic and competitive economy in the world, with a competitive, flexible, and highly productive human capital. Something which many strive for but either fail or are slow to achieve. It wants to instil highly competitive economic growth by forming a partnership with the private sector while creating a ‘digital economy.’ By having the

fastest mobile internet speed in the world, it means the country is in the top 20 by consumption of digital content, resulting in a successful e-commerce sector. Another way of is by being at the forefront of the sectors and industries of the future. It is a pioneer in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and now a prominent member of space exploration by being the fifth nation to Mars (beating China) and developing its own space agency. This is a case of

sowing the seed for the future and reaping the rewards in years to come. It has created a dedicated ministry in AI and is training teachers who will instruct students on AI throughout the education system. This is in combination with the 2020 opening of MBZ University of AI which is the world’s only specialised university in AI. This shows the country’s aim of becoming an advanced, innovative environment that creates the future by leading digitalisation, as well as being an attractive destination for investment and an incubator for future entrepreneurs by being the top ranked country in the Arab world in attracting global talent.

As I mentioned briefly earlier, the UAE was developed significantly off the refinery of oil however it now accounts for only 30% of GDP, and it wants to accelerate its shift to sustainable energy and a green economy.  It is already in the top 3 solar producers in the world and is making bold moves in biomass where Sharjah has eliminated ¾ of urban landfill by turning it into energy, unprecedented in the region. This shows a leader and

influencer in not only the energy sector but in combatting climate change. This is something I will come back to later.

Forward diplomacy:

Perhaps the most important topic when discussing whether the UAE will become a global powerhouse will be their role in diplomacy. The country wants to be a global force for growth and stability, “an essential player in economic cooperation” by being not only an influential power in the global economy but at the centre of trade and economic forums. They kickstarted this by becoming the inaugural Arab country to host the World Expo in 2021; showing off their development strategy and technological advancements to the 24 million visitors it gathered in 6 months. The country also plans to be a leading force for good in the world. They have adopted an assured foreign policy, publicly abstaining from democratisation and institutional models such as political parties. Although while it is an authoritarian state, it has integrated itself into liberal world order with diverse and multi-lateral connections with huge soft power capital where it ranks 10th globally. It has strengthened its universal fraternity through relief and humanitarian aid, seeing it as a moral duty. This can be seen right from the very top where Sheikh Zayed himself has supported charities in 51 countries while never advertising it, this places him among the most generous in the world. This could be seen as an icebreaker for further influence in foreign countries. The nation also plans to be leading global dialogue on diversity, tolerance, and peace; a first line of defence for security, safety, and future development. It has actively engaged in internal affairs of neighbouring countries, for example allocating significant funds to aid Egypt’s economic recovery and joined the coalition against Islamic State (I.S.) however, regional tensions such as the 2017 Qatar Blockade where it was clear from the outset that it would only bring harm to all countries involved. The UAE is also a strategic ally of the USA in the region, it has deployed special forces alongside American troops into: Kosovo, Somalia, Afghanistan, Libya as well as in the fight against I.S. in Iraq and Iran. This all shows a strong military and political commitment to the USA however at the same time it has deepened its cooperation on all fronts with China, India, and Russia. As many know, China is the sole strategic rival to the USA however Washington’s reaction has been tempered because both states prioritise peace in the Middle East and that is more productive to allow Chinese investment into the region than restrict it. While the UAE’s relationship with the USA is invisible on the military front, China’s relationship is unmissable on the economic front. More recently, it has tried to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.

The UAE wants to see itself as a trusted partner for nation and government building by exporting knowledge to lesser developed states. The biggest driver of this is through state-owned investment companies. Mubadala Investment Company is one of many and is responsible for projects such as Masdar City domestically (“the sustainable pillar of Mubadala”) but also has major influence worldwide managing over $302 billion of assets. This displays huge influence through the eye of the private sector. Once again, the issue of environmental sustainability comes to the agenda; it wants to be a supportive power and has made quantum leaps in its effort towards net zero by being the precedent in the region by joining the Paris Agreement and committed itself to net zero by 2050. By shifting to renewables, increasing hydrogen production and the planting of 100 million mangrove trees it aims to reach this much earlier.

While the country is displaying huge efforts in growing its diplomacy agenda, it is important to note that Abu Dhabi and Dubai hold significantly more wealth than the other 5 emirates, therefore much more political weight in policy making, this could lead to a disproportionate policy advantage and power struggles. For example, during the Qatar Blockade, Dubai struggled to oppose the blockade, deeming it as detrimental to business however Abu Dhabi made the final decision over federal policy due to its size. These disputes are not threatening to the country however it could be compounded by other issues such as water scarcity in the near future.

Forward ecosystem:

The final aim of the UAE’s 2031 plan is a forward ecosystem; a forward looking, result orientated government which creates the future. This task is the role of the Ministry of Possibilities, established in 2019. It is a virtual ministry designed to “solve systemic impossibilities of the government and build for the future” . Something which they have embarked upon is being a prominent hub for data storage in the region, they host Microsoft Azure’s first cloud region bringing 30,000 local jobs between 2017 and 2022. They have recently updated government regulations to meet data storage requirements showing their digital sovereignty. This allows them to boost their ability to exert significant political power regionally. This once again demonstrates a role in a digital-first future by adopting the latest technology and providing a space for the best talent globally.

The UAE also prides itself on having the best government services in the world, the launch of ‘Basher’ - an eService launched by the government which allows investors to set up businesses within 15 minutes, a huge attraction to the country. By moving to more digital services, the government is also able to be agile in its operating model and respond quickly to opportunities and challenges. It is also the most secure and safest country in the world and has sustainable food and water security however, there is a huge water crisis looming if climate change continues its current trajectory therefore, there has been adjustments to tariffs and subsidies regarding water, as well as specialised groundwater monitoring stations (1300 in Abu Dhabi alone). The implementation of solar desalination plants could be a solution but one that has consequences for marine life. To save water, there has been construction of greenhouses, hydroponics and the use of vertical farming which uses 99% less water than normal methods all aim to optimise water usage. Not only is climate change causing water issues, but the process of desertification means that the UAE could lose 6% of land by 2100 therefore, the agricultural sector must be equipped for this. Since 2010, there has been strict standards for construction of sustainable and environmentally friendly buildings. By 2030, this is projected to save government $10 billion and reduce CO2 emissions by 30%, enhancing the health of residents. The country also seeks to be the best in the rule-of-law and in safeguarding human rights with an advanced and effective litigation system. The legislation needs to be flexible and advanced so that it can anticipate society and the nation’s needs as well as keep up with the private sector.

The UAE’s vision for 2031 is nothing short of a challenge. Whether the UAE will become a global powerhouse is embedded in the success of this vision. However, by seeing how fast it has grown in the fifty years since its creation and seeing this development with my own eyes, I have no doubt in its success. The UAE boasts a huge global reputation already, its passport is recognised as the world’s finest. In the words of Armen Sarkissian, it is “An influential, small state that punches well above its weight".