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Image - Kelly Sikkema
This article was originally published on Jun 25, 2025.
Allow me to take you back to January, to President Trump’s first appearance back in the White House Press Room. It took place just hours after a passenger plane crashed into a military-grade helicopter above Washington D.C, killing 64 people.
In the bizarre press conference that followed, Trump careered off-script to whinge about DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) programmes introduced in the Federal Aviation Administration by his predecessors.
Political points scoring after a tragedy. And since then, we’ve had tariff tantrums and U-turns, dangerously outlandish rhetoric towards America’s allies and countless more scarcely believable moments. It’s only been six months.
In this state of exasperation, I’m inclined to cast a hopeful eye toward the future — but first, if you’ll permit me, let’s take a look at what’s already been.
Former-President Biden’s refusal to drop out of the Presidential race early was a catastrophic mistake, from a man experienced enough to know better. His decision meant there was to be no due process of candidate nomination, no primaries, no plan B. Or even a plan to begin with.
Trump preyed on the chaos. He kept uncharacteristically quiet, as his opponents squabbled. He didn’t have to be loud, as all his work was being done for him. He won comfortably in the end.
Now, the Democrats have four years to lick their wounds, as they weather the storm of another Trump presidency. They’ve got nearly four years to plan how to get one of their own in the White House in 2028.
Here’s who they need to do it.
Looking back, it is easy to say that Kamala Harris’s campaign was doomed by factors beyond her control. Biden’s stubbornness coupled with a strong worldwide trend of voters rejecting incumbent leaders springs to mind.
But another factor that flew under the radar was what voters saw Harris as being representative of.
Harris made an effort to come across as a laidback but assertive figure, who represented a partial change of course from Biden. But these efforts fell on deaf ears where it mattered most.
Swing-state voters saw her as another wealthy lawyer. A champagne socialist hailing from elitist, ultra-liberal California.
To them, she was just a Biden sequel.
Struggling Americans who dreaded grocery shopping each week couldn’t relate to Harris - and rejected her vision for America as a result.
Of course, Trump has far less relatability than Harris for most people. He won because he was seen as change from Biden. People are quick to forget.
In 2028, the Democratic nominee will have this ‘change card’ under their belt, which could serve as a boost if Trump’s second term ends as poorly as his first did. But to represent change alone is not enough.
The nominee must have the relatability factor that Harris lacked. Voters from every corner of the States should be able to look to them, and identify not just with what they say, but with who they are – and what they represent.
Trump is already flirting with the idea of a third term, but it remains outside the realms of possibility, at least for now.
His heir is tough to predict this early.
The most likely candidate would be current Vice President and part-time waxwork figure, J.D Vance. “We’ll see what happens,” he replied when asked on Fox News whether he would run in 2028.
Despite some golden gaffs on the campaign trail last year (just search: “J.D Vance donut shop”), Vance is a strong orator and got the better of Tim Walz in their televised debate last year.
Crucially, Vance would be only 44 years old come the next election. As we will explore, youth will be the key in 2028.
Of course, four years can change a lot. By the end of Trump’s first term, relations with VP Mike Pence had very much soured. Vance will be hoping that Trump has forgotten about his tweets from before the 2016 election, where he labelled Trump: “reprehensible.”
Charisma goes a long way in a Presidential race. A 2015 study by The Academy of Management Journal concluded that when economic performance was more ambiguous, charisma and personality of the candidate became a hugely important factor for voters.
Obama was proof of this in 2008. Voters were drawn to his contagious charm and oratory creativity - a refreshing change of course after 8 years of Bush. Up against the passionate but ageing John McCain, Obama swept to victory.
In the 90s, Bill Clinton drew in voters from states that are now off-limits for Democratic candidates.
“Because of his Southern heritage, he appeared very, very comfortable in African-American communities.” said Andra Gillespie, associate Professor of political science at Emory University.
Clinton had a level of cultural fluency that resonated with a range of demographic groups.
Whoever the Democrat’s nominate in 2028 will need to have a similar talent. They’ll need to be a unifier, someone who can begin the process of healing the deep cultural divisions in American society.
Hillary Clinton came agonisingly close in 2016. Kamala Harris not so close last year. The sobering truth is clearer than ever before - America has a serious woman problem.
Clinton had been First Lady in the 90s, then a Senator for 8 years, then Secretary of State under Obama for another 8 years until 2017. Harris was incumbent Vice President during her Presidential campaign, after she had represented California in the Senate since 2017.
Both had flaws. But both were vastly more equipped to be President than the alternative.
Both were beaten by the same geriatric male billionaire, with little to no political acumen. Not to mention his history of sexual harassment. Fraud too. And instigating violence. Etcetera.
The point is America is not ready for a female Commander-in-Chief. Deeply ingrained sexism simply prohibits it, for now.
The Democrats must acknowledge this reality if they are to win 2028. Sadly, it is unlikely that 2028 will be the time for a female President.
An obvious one to finish.
After what will be nearly 12 years of Trump-Biden-Trump, the onus will be on youth in 2028.
The GOP will be well aware of this, with good reason - match-ups between younger Democrats and older Republicans in modern Presidential elections have been fairly one sided.
Clinton beat older opponents twice in the 90s. Obama swept aside his older GOP rivals in 2008 and 2012. However, on this occasion it is likely that both parties will field a much younger nominee.
Of course, lots can change in 3 and a half years, and the many twists and turns ahead are impossible to foresee.
But if the Democrats can fill this archetype in 2028, they will have every chance of disrupting President Trump’s succession plans, dealing a body blow to his legacy in the process.
Many names float in the ether – Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez to name a few. One question remains: Who will step up?
Only time will tell.
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