Newsletter: A Once In A Generation Moment For Europe

Image source - Tina Hartung

This article was originally published on Mar 2, 2025.

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This is an excerpt from our weekly newsletter the round-up written by Jamie Quantick. You can subscribe on the homepage to receive it.

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This week has been one of the most pivotal in modern European history. From the highs of a productive Starmer-Trump meeting on Thursday to the disastrous Zelenskyy-Trump meeting on Friday, it is clear we are at a crossroads for security in Europe. With European leaders having just met in London, we'll go through the key parts of the week to better understand where European security stands, and to provide some context for what could happen in the next few weeks.



Monday marked the 3 year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a long and bloody battle that has been embroiled in modern politics and Trump 2.0. Monday also saw President Macron visit Washington D.C. for a face to face meeting and press conference with Trump. It was a day that many critics thought might act as a turning point for the issue of Ukraine; a chance for Europe to start to chip away at the US-Russia monopoly on negotiations. Plus, the meeting saw a rare moment when Macron live fact-checked Trump in the Oval Office. Trump signalled that there would be US support in Ukraine someway, but still held his cards close to his chest as to how much support and in what capacity.



Monday continued to see more significant diplomatic action, as Europe and the US put forward rival UN resolutions on the anniversary of the Ukrainian war. The US ended up voting with Russia against Ukraine and Europe in the General Assembly before going to the Security Council and doing the same. The US resolution included no criticism of Russia, despite efforts of the UK and France to change the wording, leading to both countries abstaining in the Security Council.

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Tuesday saw Zelenskyy agree to a minerals deal with the US. The idea that was initially floated by the Ukrainian President had its terms agreed to, but not signed. Zelenskyy had initially rejected the original agreement, leading to Trump calling the President a 'dictator', but more favourable terms were able to be negotiated. The agreement will see both countries jointly develop Ukraine's mineral resources including oil and gas.



Thursday saw British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visit Washington D.C. following on from Macron's visit on Monday and before Zelenskyy's visit on Friday. The Prime Minister arrived at the White House with the news that UK defence spending would be boosted to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and then 3% by 2035. The meeting and press conference were widely accepted as rather successful for the European/Ukrainian bloc. Starmer led a charm offensive with a letter from King Charles stowed in his breast pocket that was read out loud to press and staffers in the Oval Office. The unprecedented invitation of a second State Visit to the UK greased the wheels for Trump to row back earlier comments about Zelenskyy being a dictator. Alongside a significant emphasis on the 'special relationship', complements were flowing as Trump commented that Starmer had a 'beautiful accent' and praised his 'beautiful, great' wife. He also noted that the two got on 'famously' and referred to the Prime Minister as a 'very tough negotiator'.



Starmer was boosted by news that the US would likely back his Chagos Island deal, but saw a bigger win when it came to the issue of tariffs. Trump signalled that a trade deal was likely, and not too far away, which would in most cases absolve the UK from any tariffs that the other countries and the EU are likely to face.



But as Macron also failed to do, Starmer couldn't prise a security guarantee from the President. Although, the fact that US workers would be present in the country due to the minerals agreement would likely help deter any Russian aggression.



As with the French President's visit earlier in the week, Starmer's visit seemed to highlight signs that Trump might cede a greater role to European nations. Although he's unlikely to give Europe a seat at the table, he might give them a chance to visit the table.



Friday brought the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the White House. There were rumours that Trump was considering cancelling the visit after the dispute over the minerals deal, but the meeting still went ahead. It is hard to describe the meeting as a meeting, but more as a trap set to humiliate Zelenskyy. Trump spent the entire time the two were together attacking the Ukrainian President, from commenting 'you don’t have the cards right now... You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with world war three' and gave Zelenskyy an ultimatum to 'make a deal, or we’re out'. Vice President JD Vance got involved insisting that the Ukrainian President hadn't sufficiently thanked the US and Trump for their help. The meeting was cut short after this fiery exchange in the Oval Office and Zelenskyy was quick to leave.



Finally, Sunday saw a meeting of European leaders plus Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the NATO General Secretary. This came after Rachel Reeves announced a multi-billion pound funding package to reinforce British defence and help to arm Ukraine by changing the remit of the National Investment Fund. This was alongside a £2.26bn bilateral loan agreement.



The Sunday Lancaster House summit centred around the next steps for peace in Ukraine, and provided an opportunity for Starmer to recruit more nations to his 'coalition of the willing'. This coalition will provide peacekeeping troops on the ground and planes in the air once a peace deal is signed. Starmer also continued to push European countries to drastically increase defence spending in a time of such uncertainty. The Prime Minister did receive some backlash for not inviting the Balkan nations to the summit, something that he later apologised for.



The meeting saw a number of announcements including a four point plan agreed by leaders:

• To keep military aid flowing into Ukraine while the war is ongoing, and increase economic pressure on Russia.
• Any lasting peace must ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and security, and Ukraine must be at the table for any peace talks.
• In the event of a peace deal, European leaders will aim to deter any future invasion by Russia into Ukraine.
• There would be a "coalition of the willing" to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace in the country.

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Also agreed was a £1.6bn UK-Ukraine missile deal, which will provide Ukraine with 5,000 air defence missiles. The UK and France will also work with Ukraine to put forward a peace plan to the US, strategically positioning the UK and France as the bridge between Europe and the US. The summit signalled significant European unity around Ukraine, despite some disagreement between the UK and France over Macron's proposal for an initial one month truce between Russia and Ukraine.



After the meeting, Zelenskyy left London for Sandringham where he met with King Charles III.



And that's a rundown of what's happened this week with Ukraine. It's been a whirlwind 7 days. It's impossible to predict what will happen in the coming weeks, but its likely the minerals deal will be signed, more European countries will announce defence spending increases and join the 'coalition of the willing'. On the other side of the Atlantic, we might start to hear what security guarantees will be in place once a peace deal is signed.