Geert is Gone: What Happens Next for The Netherlands and Europe?

Image - Marjoline Delahaye

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On the 29th of October 2025, the Dutch went to the polls three years earlier than expected, less than two years after their last election. This election has proved to be the tightest in the history of the Dutch Parliament, topped with a surprise win from the centrist party Democraten 66 (D66) and their leader, Rob Jetten. What came as a surprise from this election was the collapse in votes for Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV). The right-wing populist party lost 11 seats, but still achieved the second-highest vote share by a razor-thin margin of 0.27%. With this surprise win for D66, should we start to expect the same to happen to other right-wing populist parties throughout Europe?

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To understand this, we first need to look at Geert Wilders and his party, PVV. In November 2023, they won the largest share of the vote and as a result, formed a coalition government with three other right-wing parties: New Social Contract (NSC), People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the Farmer-Citizens Movement (BBB). They rose from being an outsider party to being the most popular on a platform of far-right and anti-immigration policies, including a near-total ban on so-called “gender propaganda” and a near-complete halt of all asylum applications. The style of politics feels similar to several other parties throughout Europe, such as Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), Law and Justice (PiS) in Poland and Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, all part of a larger worldwide movement in support of euroscepticism and right-wing populism.

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The other Dutch parties still opposed PVV, and especially Geert Wilders, with the NSC only joining on the promise that Wilders was not Prime Minister. Compromises were struck, and the original right-wing populist promises of the PVV were watered down into a more centre-right government. The election itself was triggered when PVV withdrew from this coalition because the other coalition members refused to agree to Wilders' ten-point immigration plan. Having campaigned on a near-total ban on asylum seekers, PVV felt they were unable to complete this. They pulled out of the coalition, rendering Schoof’s cabinet unusable, and triggered a snap election.

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When PVV withdrew, and the election was called only days later, their opinion polling stood at 29%; this put them significantly ahead of the second most popular party, GreenLeft-Labour (GL-PvdA), which was polling at an average of just 17%. However, between the election being called on the 6th of June and the country going to the voting booths on 29th October, the PVV dropped over 12% in the polls. Interestingly, another right-wing party they worked with (NSC) saw a total collapse in their vote share, losing all their seats in this election. Between these two factors, the PVV not only unexpectedly lost their primary share but also completely lost any ability to form a government. Had this result been predicted, it is likely that PVV would not have withdrawn from parliament.

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With the collapse came a new party that rose in the polls. When the election was called, D66 was polling at around 7-8%, placing them as the 5th most popular party in The Netherlands. But, despite this, they shot up and secured 16.9% of the total vote share. But was this due to a PVV loss rather than a D66 win?

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Despite the fact that PVV were still the highest polling party, a large fatigue was growing amongst the Dutch population. The collapse of the government acted as a cherry on top of the cake for what had been a very lacklustre term. Whilst this has been happening, D66 has been recovering from their loss of government in the last election. They replaced their old leader with the new Rob Jetten, a 38 year old who led D66 to win the election. He is not only the youngest PM in Dutch History, but also the first openly gay.

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With this change came a new energy within Dutch politics. A coalition of the GreenLeft-Labour (GL-PvdA) and the VVD was formed, who were part of Geert Wilder's previous government. Forming what's called a “Purple Government” is a relatively common move within Dutch politics, as has been done by D66 when they have led previous governments. Doing so not only guarantees the largest share of seats but also means a broader range of opinions are shared, leading to a more centrist government overall. The aim of this government is largely to continue as they once did back in 2023, before PVV took over. This means a reversal on their rejection of green energy targets as well as a rejection of the anti-immigrant sentiment that PVV had nurtured during their tenure. To the Dutch, this very much feels like a rejection of the far-right populist sentiment that had started to build, but is this a pattern we can expect to see in the rest of Europe?

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It's hard to know for certain, but as with the PVV, many far-right parties are being prevented from power by coalitions. Last year, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) won the most votes in the Austrian elections, but was prevented from forming a government by a centrist coalition of smaller parties. This pattern can be seen in France, Germany (to a lesser extent), Poland, and now the Netherlands. If we look at the results alone, it appears that the current political trend is to form a coalition. Efforts are being made by smaller parties to prevent those on the far-right from taking a majority, and results have been varied. Whilst they are successful in stopping euroscepticism, in many cases, the minorities they lead have proven to be unstable. This is most apparent in France, where a carefully calculated plan managed to prevent the far-right from seizing power, but post-election, it has left them with a government that is more divided than ever.

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As for the PVV, they not only failed to implement the drastic changes they swore to achieve, but have also caused persistent chaos, setting back their ability to govern. Perhaps, had it not been for the other parties they chose to partner with, we would have seen the full extent of what PVV had to offer. It is clear to see that the PVV have sunk even further in the polls, placing them firmly in second place behind D66. Without a drastic change to recover from their failed government, opinion will likely continue to sink long after the results of this election.

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Looking ahead to 2030, the trajectory of far-right parties will be crucial to watch. In the UK, with the rise of the Green Party and in Germany with Die Linke, a counter-movement has started across many countries around Europe that directly opposes the exclusionary rhetoric. In the next four years, we will see 30 to 60 elections throughout Europe. Each one will be a vital battle in opposing the Far Right and no matter the result, tensions are going to rise. The Dutch elections proved to be a surprise win for centrist governments. In the face of hatred, only time will tell if this is a surprise that can be recreated in other countries.