Is Trump planning a regime change in Venezuela?

Image - Abdullah Al Hasan

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On September 2, 2025, a small boat off the coast of Venezuela was blown up, killing all 11 passengers onboard. Since then, there have been 19 attacks, claiming the lives of 76 people. The culprit? Donald Trump and company.

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In an effort to swiftly defy international condemnation, Trump has justified the attacks by using the self-defence narrative that illicit drugs were arriving in the United States. By claiming that these boats carried ‘narco-terrorists’ affiliated with the ‘Tren de Aragua’ criminal organisation, he was able to securitise the issue and legitimise his desire for military intervention. As a result, there has been a large-scale deployment of fighter jets, submarines, drones, as well as the world’s largest aircraft carrier in the Caribbean Sea.

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Meanwhile, as American military presence in the sea grows, Trump has begun to turn his attention to land. His target? Many are pointing at Venezuela’s de-facto president: Nicolás Maduro.

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In October 2025, Trump authorised the CIA to conduct operations inside Venezuela, raising suspicions of a possible regime change. The main reason he gave in an interview with The New York Times was, once again, the threat of drug trafficking coming from Venezuela — a clearly misguided argument, as Venezuela in fact plays only a minor role in the region’s drug trade.

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Maduro has stressed the importance of choosing peace over war, reminding Americans of past interventions that failed in places such as Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq. He accuses the US of “fabricating a war” to seize Venezuela’s rich natural resources, which include gold, copper, and vast quantities of oil. In turn, Trump claims that while he doubts the US will go to war, “Maduro’s days are numbered.” Critics argue this could signal a potential “smash-and-grab” scenario in which Maduro is forcefully removed from the country to be put on trial in American soil.

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Nevertheless, Maduro is not quite the peace-loving figure he portrays himself to be. Since coming into power in2013, he has repeatedly taken steps to ensure his continued presidency. His regime has long suppressed the opposition and organised flawed elections — most recently in 2024 — to consolidate power and maintain full control over institutions. The media has also been manipulated to promote its political and ideological agenda. According to a 2023 report by Freedom House, Venezuela scored 1 out of 40 in political rights and 14 out of 60 in civil liberties, earning the status of “Not Free”.

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His regime has been marked by Venezuela’s deep humanitarian crisis. Years of severe shortages of food, clean water, and medical supplies have devastated a nation that was once the most prosperous in Latin America. Since 2014, nearly eight million Venezuelans have fled the country. Annual inflation has skyrocketed reaching an all-time high of 130,000% in 2018. In 2021, it was estimated that around 65% of the population was living in poverty.

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However, to fully understand the source of Venezuela’s crisis — and to assess whether a potential removal of Maduro would truly benefit the people — it is essential to examine the role that oil has played throughout the country’s history.

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Venezuela is, and has for a long time been, a petrostate. This term refers to a country which depends heavily on oil to generate income. It also describes nations in which elites hold excessive power, institutions are weak, and corruption runs rampant.

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Petrostates are highly susceptible to what economists call “Dutch disease”, in which a government develops an unhealthy dependence on a single natural resource at the expense of other sectors. This is detrimental to any economy, as it not only creates high vulnerability to fluctuations in global markets and capital flows but also enables leaders to use resource wealth to consolidate vast amounts of extrajudicial power.

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Throughout the 20^th century, Venezuela’s economy showed clear signs of this “disease”. The Punto Fijo Pact of 1958 was made to guarantee oil revenues were only directed to the three main political parties. As a result, there was a fundamental disconnect between the government and its citizens, as national income relied more on exports than taxes. This was demonstrated by the 1989 riots in Caracas following long periods of inflation and economic instability. The protests turned deadly, polarising the population and generating resentment towards the government.

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What came next was one of the most controversial figures in Venezuelan history: Hugo Chávez. Initially guided by a socialist pledge to reduce poverty and inequality, he soon began to exhibit signs of authoritarianism. He took control of the National Assembly, abolished term limits, suspended media rights, and worsened the mismanagement of the oil industry. At the same time, crumbling relations with the US caused a series of financial sanctions, fuelling economic insecurity. Following his death in 2013, then-Vice President Maduro was sworn in by a close margin, continuing the display of dictatorial features.

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Returning to 2025, and the situation appears more uncertain than ever. Predicting Donald Trump’s next move is no simple task, but one thing seems clear — he will not back down. As demonstrated by this article, the driving forces behind his actions appear to be less about combating drug trafficking and more about pursuing regime change and asserting control over Venezuelan oil fields.

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Whilst toppling Maduro would be seen as a victory by many, there remains the dangerous possibility of a swing toward dictatorship on the opposite side of the political spectrum. To prevent this, it is fundamental to reflect on past regime changes orchestrated by the US and their associated human rights violations. A regime change would also require substantial funding to restore Venezuela’s collapsed institutions.

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Lastly, it will be interesting to analyse the growing role of prominent figures such as the opposition leader María Corina Machado (winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize), who has praised Donald Trump for his ‘decisive support’ in the fight for democracy. Will Machado and her team join forces with Trump to end Nicolás Maduro’s 12 years in power? Could this alliance result in a forceful coup d’état, despite significant calls against it? And what might a government led by this opposition look like? With Venezuela’s future at stake, the world watches closely.