Why do Labour keep moving to the right?

Keir Starmer’s Labour party keep on shifting to the right in an effort to slow the growth of Reform UK, but in doing so they are harming themselves more than their opposition?

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The Labour party have always been a centre left party. In the two-party system that has long reigned over British politics, Labour and the Conservatives each occupied one side of the coin. In the 1950s, the two parties combined frequently received over 90% of the vote share, and even in 2017 they received over 82% combined. This has changed recently, however, and the 2024 election saw Labour and the Tories get less than 60% combined vote share, with more parties picking up votes and seats than ever before. Following the catastrophic decline of the Conservative party, Reform UK are growing at an alarming rate. They were the big winner in the 1st of May local elections, taking control of 10 councils. While it could be assumed that this signals a decline of the two-party system, many political commentators and politicians, including Reform leader Nigel Farage himself, believe that Reform will take over from the Conservatives as the second main party in the UK. A recent IPSOS poll found that 37% of Britons would regard reform as the main party of opposition, while only 33% see this roll as still being filled by the Tories. The two-party system is in a transition period, exchanging one right wing party for a new party, albeit a more extreme one. So why are Labour panicking and making a mess of things?

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Labour have had a rocky first 11 months in government, not helped by the multiple conflicts and the chaos caused by a Trump presidency. Yet they seem to be making things infinitely harder for themselves by obsessing over the desires of Reform voters and not focused enough on the policies and beliefs that define the Labour party. As a centre left party, Labour have long been associated with public services, welfare, high tax and high spending, humane approaches to immigration and foreign affairs, and progressive social policy. In the context of Reform’s rise, they seem to be shedding these traditional beliefs in favour of policies that are far more resemblant of the right, most notably the recently unveiled immigration policy.

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Under Tony Blair the party endorsed freedom of movement in the name of economic advancement and filling labour shortages, and Jeremy Corbyn emphasised the rights of immigrants and called for a compassionate approach to the migration issue. Starmer himself has also previously advocated for free movement and a more positive immigration stance. The new white paper, however, includes higher thresholds for skilled workers, some of the longest residency waits in Europe, stricter student rules, a scrapping of the care visa, and tougher English tests. The policy announcements were accompanied by a speech from Keir Starmer that was riddled with far-right rhetoric, including the now infamous line that the UK risks becoming an “island of strangers”. Many Labour MPs have expressed concern at the policies and the language surrounding it, while Farage praised Starmer’s speech, saying “you seem to be learning a very great deal from us”. Does this not clearly demonstrate that Labour are losing themselves in their efforts to appeal to Reform voters? This new direction is not a reflection of Labour’s true views and is instead a misguided tactical decision.

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But why is the decision misguided? The issue is not purely an ideological one. Labour are not just disregarding their core beliefs; they are also losing more supporters than they stand to gain from this new policy direction. Labour lost the Runcorn and Helsby by-election to Reform by just 6 votes. Since the seat had previously belonged to Labour, the easy conclusion would be that Labour are losing votes to Reform. However, the Greens, who promote a progressive, left-leaning ideology, got over 2000 votes. By moving right, Labour are losing essential votes on the left. Furthermore, the people that are voting Reform are not the same people that voted Labour; they are former Tory voters! All the councils that Reform now control were previously held by the Conservatives. A recent YouGov poll found that 27% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 now intend to vote Reform, while only 15% of former Labour voters share than intention. What is alarming is that 23% of Labour voters now intend to vote for either the LibDems or the Greens. Labour are losing more voters to the left than they are to the right, so rather than pandering to the desires of Farage’s followers who are most likely already lost, they need to focus on winning back the voters that are drifting the other way.

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Britain has always been and will always be a two-party system. Reform will keep on growing until they swallow up the Conservatives entirely. So instead of adopting Reform-esque policies in an attempt to block their growth, Labour should instead start attacking Reform where they are weak. Farage and his crew were the lead drivers behind Brexit, a decision which only 11% of Brits now regard as a success. Farage is also notoriously unclear on how he’d fund any of his grandiose ideas and intends to at least partially privatize the NHS, an idea that enrages most of the country. Rather than leaning further left, Labour needs to take a long hard look at the polls, and at what kind of party they want to be, before they lose themselves and their voters entirely.