Reform UK succeeds, above all, because of disillusionment with the ‘big two’. Labour is failing to inspire while in government, and distrust in the Conservatives was the primary reason they fared so poorly in the 2024 General Election. Reform’s anti-establishment position resonates with voters who feel abandoned and demand major change. Indeed, it’s in the name: Reform UK.
Data from YouGov confirms this thesis, positing that the primary reason people support Reform is out of a desire for a non ‘big two’ party. However, this outsider status that many populists have previously thrived off is set to wane, and it’s because Reform seems oddly ardent about bringing back the Johnson years. It seems high time to take a stroll down memory lane.
Boris Johnson’s premiership was, above all else, chaotic. Parliamentary toing and froing over Brexit, proroguing Parliament (unlawfully), COVID, Partygate, and the final nail in Johnson’s prime-ministerial coffin: Pinchergate. It all feels so long ago now, given that the Conservative Party has since been helmed by travesty Truss, subpar Sunak (who, in all honesty, deserves credit for steadying the ship), and now the benign Badenoch. The current leader has had her moments, particularly in response to the 2025 Budget, but the days of winning whopping majorities under Johnson seem like a distant memory.
Following on from Johnson’s 2019 landslide victory, you could walk the length of Britain, from Land’s End to Hadrian’s Wall, without leaving a Tory seat. Now, the Tories face an existential crisis; their first-ever serious contender on the right of British politics is looking to knock them off their perch. Although the Johnsonites need not worry – Farage is getting the band back together.
New arrivals include Robert Jenrick, Nadhim Zahawi, and, most recently, Suella Braverman, all of whom served under Johnson as his Housing Minister, Chancellor, and Attorney General, respectively. Nadine Dorries and Danny Kruger defected to Reform in September of last year; the former was Johnson’s Culture Minister and the latter his Political Secretary. Reform’s Chief Whip, Lee Anderson, was first elected as an MP in Johnson’s landslide victory back in 2019. It’s beginning to look like a who’s who of a yesteryear Conservative Party, and I’m not sure why Reform thinks that's such a good thing.
Farage and co. have welcomed these former Johnsonites, who have been compared by some to rats feeling the sinking Tory ship, with open arms – but who wants rats? Since Reform’s primary source of success is not being established, their welcoming of big beasts from a bygone political era seems like electoral suicide.
Reform’s newfound image as a safe haven for politicians looking to eke out paychecks from politics is hardly a desirable one. This has coincided with a Reform popularity slump, as reported by several pollsters: they’re down three percentage points since November. Correlation isn’t causation, but it doesn’t take Andrew Marr to see where this issue may be stemming from: Reform has begun putting off the very voters it drew away from the Tories and Labour with its anti-establishment image.
This strategy is somewhat baffling as an onlooker, and it leaves one pondering what Reform’s leadership thinks it is getting out of these high-profile defections. Perhaps Reform is pleased that it reinforces the image of the Conservative Party’s looming death. Or maybe it's believed these figures will provide policy expertise, providing the political know-how to get serious about platform stratagem. It’s even been suggested to me that Farage simply adores the mass of Conservative MPs and former ministers grovelling at his feet; one can imagine it does wonders for the ego.
Some of the defections make more sense than others: Jenrick, for example, once tipped to be the Conservative Party’s leader, is an effective communicator with a knack for resonating with voters through quirky social media content. This aligns with Reform’s broader success on digital platforms. However, it’s all downhill from there. It’s hard to see what the likes of Zahawi can offer, with a less-than-glittering governmental record and no seat. Dorries is similar. She spent most of her Parliamentary career criticising the party whose rosette she adorned and abandoned her constituents to appear on the reality TV show I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here! It doesn’t scream cream of the crop.
The strategy of welcoming former Johnsonites is an evidently self-destructive one that will do little more than hurt Reform in the long term. It erodes the identity they have thrived upon; you cannot present yourself as the party of change, only to fill your ranks with political veterans whose time has long since passed. If Reform does not heed this lesson, then the rebrand to Rehash has to be underway – it’s a far more accurate reflection of the organisation at large.
.svg)
.svg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.svg)
.svg)
