Labour’s 2024 manifesto claimed the party would “end the chaos of sleaze and division” in devolved politics. However, in 2026, the relationships between Westminster and the devolved parliaments are fractious at best. In May, the devolved nations will cast their votes in the Senedd, Stormont, and Holyrood. Currently, it seems likely Labour is about to lose its Senedd majority for the first time since devolution. The collapse of Labour, internally and publicly, is giving way to a rise of success of not only the nationalist parties in devolved politics, but also a surge in support for Reform. In both the opinion polls for Holyrood and the Senedd, Reform is second, above Labour who is polling in third. The elections in May will reveal how severe Labour’s losses are, and whether it can come back.
Welsh Labour vs UK Labour: public grievances and leaked memos
Last year, Welsh Labour MS’ vocalised criticism against Westminster, accusing the UK Labour Party of undermining devolution, in part due to the UK government’s Pride in Place programme which provides funding to improve communities and town centres. Eleven members from the Senedd Labour Party wrote to Starmer, expressing dissatisfaction with the scheme, stating that, “This is a UK Government programme operating in a wholly devolved area that is being designed and delivered by Whitehall”. Devolution delegates certain powers to the devolved governments, one of which is the governance and funding of local governments. The letter argued that Westminster had overlooked the Senedd’s delegated power, failing to deliver the further devolution it had promised, arguing Starmer and his government were attempting to limit further devolution. By ignoring Senedd powers, UK Labour has displayed a seemingly apathetic attitude to devolved politics.
This attitude has been reflected in the recent leaked memo written by Starmer in December obtained by Plaid Cymru. He stated: “We should be confident in our ability to deliver directly in those nations, including through direct spending, even when devolved governments may oppose this", and emphasised the importance of the upcoming elections. In response to the outrage from the leak, the Prime Minister said he was “not going to make any apologies for spending more money in Scotland or in Wales to improve people’s lives”. However, Starmer has appeared to undermine devolution, suggesting that the UK government is prepared to overrule devolved decisions and undercut the Sewel Convention. The Sewel Convention states that central government will “not normally” legislate on devolved matters, which the Prime Minister seems to be implying he is willing to ignore.
The leaked memo is just another problem for the suffering Welsh Labour which has been the incumbent party for nearly thirty years, since devolution. It is failing to satisfy a tired and apathetic public. It has publicly clashed with its UK counterpart, and is now witnessing its downfall. In September 2024, Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens stated that there were “two Labour governments at both ends of the M4, working together to deliver on the priorities of people across Wales with a mission-driven government”. However, it is clear that in 2026, the Senedd and Westminster are much further apart than the one hundred and eighty-nine miles of the M4. Westminster’s seeming willingness to undermine Senedd sovereignty and Welsh Labour’s public grievances with UK Labour has left an uneasy atmosphere behind.
The rise of nationalism: Plaid and Reform
Labour divisions have made way for the rise of Reform and Plaid Cymru in Wales. Plaid are predicted to win a majority in the Senedd on May 7th, leading by fourteen points. It is highly likely that Labour will lose its stronghold in Wales for the first time since 1999; what was once essentially a guaranteed win is no longer a safety zone for Labour. The Caerphilly by-election in 2025, in which Labour came third, signalled the beginning of its downfall in Welsh politics. The Welsh have lost confidence in a stagnated Labour government that is failing to deliver not only its promise of further devolution, but also seems apathetic to the Senedd.
Apparent dismissal of Welsh politics, and nation-wide dissatisfaction of Labour’s government, has resulted in a rise of nationalism. In Wales, Plaid Cymru has been the chosen nationalist party. It has been on the side lines for much of Welsh politics, but has now become the party that is favoured to win the next elections. The results will likely be a warning to Labour that they have to start paying attention to the devolved nations and that they should not underestimate Wales’ ability to vote them out.
Moreover, recently there has been demand in Wales for devolution of the Crown Estate. The Westminster government has rejected the call, arguing that it would make “no commercial sense". All 22 local authorities passed a motion to devolve the estate, and yet were still denied. The Labour government has alienated the Welsh authorities and public through this rejection by failing to follow its promise of further devolution.
Concluding Thoughts
The Senedd elections on the 7th of May will reveal the scale of Starmer’s government’s failings. If Plaid Cymru do succeed with a majority in the elections, and end Labour’s twenty-seven year long Welsh government, there is no doubt that Plaid will have to do things differently for the people of Wales. It needs a different, refreshing approach that Labour cannot provide. Ultimately, it will be down to the people of Wales to decide.
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