Macron: Facing a Crisis of Confidence

Image - Simon Dawson

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The last few weeks have been tumultuous for French politics, spelling the decline of Macronism under increasing political instability.

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On Monday the 6th of October, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned less than four weeks after taking office, and less than twenty-four hours since he had proposed his new cabinet. In his resignation speech, Lecornu criticised the stubbornness of multiple political parties to compromise over key issues such as national debt and immigration.

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However, by Friday of the same week, Lecornu was reappointed by President Macron, accepting the role ‘out of duty’ to his country. Leaders from both the far right and the far left have said they will not support this reappointment, which further undermines Lecornu’s authority. This rapid resignation and subsequent reinstatement reflects the inner turmoil and political instability that France, and particularly Macron, faces.

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The origin of this chaos can be attributed to Macron’s surprising choice to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024, which resulted in a hung parliament with no party able to secure a majority. This hung parliament destabilised the French political system, which was worsened further by the reluctance of political party cooperation highlighted by Lecornu. This decision occurred after a huge loss occurred for Macron and his centrist party in the EU’s Parliamentary elections to the far-right French party, The National Rally. As a result, the former collusion between the Centrists and the Republicans fell away, exposing the vulnerabilities in France’s political system and its failure to achieve any semblance of unity.

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Macron faces three key threats to retaining his presidency – increasing fragmentation, the rise of the far-right and lack of confidence.

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The first is the increasing fragmentation of its political parties and the further breakdown of parliament. The functioning of the state is threatened if no collective decisions can be made. In addition, the expanding chasms between the left and the right and the subsequent political polarisation further endangers the equilibrium of French politics. ‘Macronism’ was termed to describe Macron’s liberal approach to unite the centre left and right to provide a wide-ranging coalition. However, this centrist approach only retains its utility if there is minimal fragmentation. It is already evident that as coalitions collapse, the laboured decision making of the parties outlined by Lecornu will only worsen. Under these conditions, it will remain difficult for Macron to retain stability or introduce legislation.

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Alongside greater fragmentation, the rise of the far right further endangers Macron’s presidency, specifically Marine Le Pen’s party, The National Rally. They obtained the lead party spot with 31.4% of the vote in the European Parliament elections and have gained on others through a hardline stance on immigration and increased attention to cost-of-living issues. The increasing popularity of The National Rally due to their commitment to action threatens Macron’s centrist equilibrium, as they could gain sufficient support for a parliamentary majority, if combined with some centre-right allies.

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The final threat is a lack of confidence, which renders Macron vulnerable to a vote of no confidence, which would effectively oust him as President. Macron’s previous allies have begun to turn on him – a definite signal of lack of belief in his policies and approach. Both the former Prime Minister (Gabriel Attal) and a vital ally of Macron (Edouard Phillippe) have denounced their support for Macron, stating they no longer agree with his decision-making. In addition, his government was threatened by two no-confidence motions that could dismantle it, from the hard-left (France Unbowed) and the far-right (National Rally). This emerging lack of belief in Macron undermines his position as President and will further destabilise the government, which will find difficulties in pushing through legislation without political support.

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These three threats not only spell the demise of Macron’s presidency but also serve to significantly weaken French decision-making over key issues, such as its crippling national debt, which stands at 3.4 trillion Euros, and ongoing contention over pension age and austerity plans. As France struggles to politically unite to combat key issues, this weakens its legislative capabilities and its chance at achieving change.

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Consequently, critics are calling for either fresh legislation or Macron’s resignation to resolve the ongoing instability of the French parliament. Either way, this spells trouble for Macron and his future as France’s President. It is evident that to enact real change and to return stability to French politics, there is no position for Macron.

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However, Macron has refused to resign, instead committing himself to finding a solution and continuing in his role until the end of his final presidential term in 2027. The introduction of new legislation also remains unlikely as he has reverted to Lecornu as PM, who is flanked by a similar cabinet to before he left.

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Faced with chronic political instability, crippling national debt and declining trust in his leadership, Macron faces an insurmountable challenge to retain his presidency until the end of his term in 2027. Unless new legislation is presented or Macron resigns, France continues to face legislative and political paralysis.