Mandelson’s Past & Starmer’s Future

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Peter Mandelson’s political career has long been associated with intrigue and controversy. During the New Labour years, he cultivated a reputation among the media for his efficacy in spin and ‘schmoozing’ with interest groups. Following the release of the latest Epstein files from the US Department of Justice, however, the former US Ambassador has come under renewed scrutiny for his alleged relationship with the deceased sex trafficking paedophile, Jeffrey Epstein. Newly released files suggest that Mandelson prematurely informed Epstein of Gordon Brown’s resignation, alongside encouraging him to challenge the government during its negotiations with JP Morgan following the 2008 financial crash, all while serving as the UK Business Secretary. They further demonstrate the personal closeness of their relationship, with Mandelson extending Epstein invitations to his home, and wishing him well following his release from house arrest for underage sexual solicitation in 2009. While Mandelson denies any wrongdoing during his New Labour tenure, he faces a police investigation into the illegality of his alleged actions.

At the time of his appointment as ambassador to Washington, it could be reasonably argued that Mandelson’s experience and political proficiency made him a particularly well-suited candidate to manage a Donald Trump White House. Now, though, the decision is reflecting poorly on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s judgement and ethics, enraging MPs across party lines. During Prime Minister’s Questions following the files’ release, the leader of the opposition, Kemi Badenoch, questioned Starmer directly on his knowledge of Mandelson and Epstein’s relationship. When asked whether the background security report on Mandelson detailed the pair’s long-term friendship, Starmer responded, “it did”. This reply prompted criticism from a cross-party coalition of MPs, with prominent Labour backbenchers calling on No.10 to release all files related to the appointment, including those deemed as potentially embarrassing.

Since then, Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeny - widely recognised as Mandelson’s protégé - has resigned, alongside his director of communications, Tim Allan. For now, however, the Prime Minister himself appears to have maintained parliamentary control, with his cabinet closing its ranks around him, despite some isolated protests from senior Labour figures outside of Westminster. Following the government’s agreement to release the files related to Mandelson’s appointment, however, the scandal may yet worsen. When his party won its historic majority in the summer of 2024, Starmer promised it would seek to seriously reduce violence against women and girls. The PM’s confession that No.10 had prior knowledge about the extent of Mandelson and Epstein’s relationship therefore risks presenting such claims as insincere at best, and hypocritical at worst. With Starmer’s then Deputy Leader and gender equality advocate, Angela Rayner, allegedly personally voicing her concerns at the prospect of a Mandelson appointment, the scandal could seriously undermine Starmer’s authority on this central government aim.

Aside from casting doubt over his government’s commitment to meaningfully protect women and take their views and concerns seriously, the Mandelson affair could further destabilise Starmer’s authority over his backbenchers. Should the public feel that he is failing to acknowledge his role in any ethical misconduct associated with Mandelson’s appointment, the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election appears to be the natural platform to express dissatisfaction. Reform candidate Matt Goodwin appears to have recognised as such, focusing his online campaign on X against Starmer personally, presumably leveraging the scandal to attract potential protest votes. If Labour were to lose the seat, Starmer’s efforts at self-preservation following the files’ release may prove in vain. While the initial scandal may have been insufficient in bringing the PM down, a significant Labour loss which his backbenchers perceive as being expressly related to his position as leader could prove politically fatal.

There is, however, a degree of dark irony to this latest Mandelson scandal. While we consider whether Starmer, a man entirely disconnected from Epstein personally, will remain in post, very few of those closely associated with the paedophile financier have faced any meaningful consequences. Testimony from Florida's former police chief, for example, alleges that President Trump suggested he and “everyone” knew about the vile nature of Epstein’s crimes as early as 2006, yet such claims have not resulted in the President facing serious political pressure to resign. Starmer’s predicament, then, appears to be about issues greater than Mandelson alone. With Labour’s backbenchers having already expressed their frustrations with the government’s proposed welfare reforms, its disregarding of MPs, and its political strategy, this latest scandal may simply prove to be the straw which finally breaks the proverbial camel’s back. In any case, the potential resignation of the UK’s Prime Minister is unlikely to assist in providing the justice Epstein’s victims so desperately deserve.

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