Not yet Andy: Why this isn’t Burnham’s moment

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A flurry of eye-raising interviews in the build up to Labour Party conference have made it clear that the Greater Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, is ready for his voice to be heard on the national stage. This is hardly the first time Burnham’s career ambitions have steered towards Downing Street, having run for Leader of the Labour party in both 2010 and 2015. Now backed up by a new centre-left think tank ‘Mainstream’ and looking to capitalise on a floundering Kier Starmer, is this the right time for Burnham to return to Westminster?

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Previously a minister in the Blair and Brown years and shadow Home Secretary under Corbyn’s leadership, Burnham has blended his experiences to forge himself into a titan of the Labour Party. Since becoming mayor in 2017, he has overseen a transformation of the city. Introducing local control of the bus service has enabled the maintaining of a two-pound fare cap on all single rides, further expansion of the tram network provides interconnection of the city like never before, and consistently outperforming the rest of the country in terms of economic growth, has all cemented Manchester’s place as the UK’s second city. Taking the progress made in Manchester and applying it nationwide doesn’t sound like a bad alternative. So far Kier Starmer’s Labour Party has plummeted in opinion ratings watched on as Reform UK have risen in the polls, embroiled itself in the scandal of Peter Mandelson and Angela Rayner, and is still failing to provide the change that was promised at the election.

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So, Burnham is certainly right, the government needs a change in direction, a take two, and a push for more progressive politics that can make a real impact on people’s lives. Divisive policies like cutting welfare and introducing ID cards have done the government no favours; traditional Labour policies of nationalising utilities or building council homes is what is needed to make real progress and Burnham has this vision.

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But why does this necessarily mean leadership change? Have we learnt nothing from the past? Warring for leadership has long been a key component of the downfall of governments and sent parties into the political wilderness. The Blair and Brown years saw ferocious and public battles that did immense damage to the party’s image, and the revolving door of conservative leadership saw five tory prime ministers in the space of six years, a level of political instability that should never return. While a change of leadership is the de facto solution to low opinion polling, the political turmoil that ensues no longer provides a net positive outcome.

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Starmer’s team have already proved to be one of reactionary politics, chasing the Reform vote one week and pandering to the left the next. Perhaps the change Burnham wants to see can be achieved without committing political regicide. And it has already been made clear that the ideas of the so called ‘King in the North’ are already spreading south.

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting credited Burnham for bringing forward the conversation about the culture of the party, and in the autumn budget it is expected that Rachel Reeves will announce a partial change to the ‘two-child benefit cap’, a key issue for Labour MP’s that Burnham had begun to spearhead in recent weeks. Furthermore, if Lucy Powell, a Burnham loyalist, wins the Deputy Leadership race she will hold a key position within Starmer’s inner circle and be able to put forward policy ideas without fear of losing her position. This all suggests that the Government is already prepared to move in the direction that Burnham desires and continuing this pressure could see a permanent change. Whilst these actions may be out of political self-preservation rather than political belief, it is progress nonetheless and achieved by Burnham without stepping outside Manchester.

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Giving further reason for Burnham to stay on as mayor is that the path to actually becoming Prime Minister poses significant hurdles to be overcome. First, to win a seat in Parliament, a more difficult task than you might imagine for someone of his political stature. The constituencies currently being eyed up as an opportunity for Burnham to become an MP are the Gorton and Denton seat or Blackley and Middleton South, both projected to be hotly contested by reform. If Burnham does run for one of these seats he will have to face the parties candidate selection panel, stacked with Starmer loyalists who up until now have exercised unparalleled level of control over candidate selection, ensuring ruthless deselection of possible opponents to Starmer. If he can move beyond this stage and become the Labour candidate, you can guarantee Nigel Farage and Reform would throw the kitchen sink at a by-election for their candidate. Would Downing Street be as keen to help there’s? All this just to make it to parliament and then comes the leadership challenge. The updated higher threshold of 80 Labour MP’s is no easy feat even when considering Burnham’s popularity and would leave the party divided for all to see.

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But if Burnham were to see off Reform on his path to Westminster, where does that leave Labour and the mayoralty. Having introduced and held the office since 2015, the Greater Manchester mayoralty is somewhat of a jewel in the crown of Labour’s devolution achievements, much like the Senedd in Wales. To lose such a posting would be a devastating blow to the party. However, the same trends present in Gorton and Denton, and Blackley and Middleton South can be seen across the city, with Reform rising and Labour collapsing and the 2026 local elections looming large. The party’s historic popularity in Manchester seems to be transforming into a popularity for Andy Burnham the individual, and without his presence at the next mayoral election a vacuum could appear for Reform to fill. This is certainly an outcome to be cautious of and Burnham, ever proud of his achievements whilst mayor, would not want to see his hard work undone in one clumsy Farage shaped swoop.

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Simply, there is more work for the mayor to do: Northern Powerhouse rail, further expansion of the bee network, and the housing improvements he always promised (link to him promising this if possible). That is why the current position Burnham finds himself in perfectly suits his aims, away from the Westminster bubble he so despises but putting the pressure on Number10, conducting good work in Manchester but still influencing national policy. While thoughts of a fight for the leadership leaves the press frothing at the mouth, it may cause more harm than good for the party. Burnham, hardly wanting to cause the first domino to collapse on Reforms path to power, might be be ststaying on the outside, playing the long game. His ideas are needed and welcomed, but now is not the right time for his leadership bid.